Coca-Cola and Simply Good Foods at the till: results against what shoppers bought

Coca-Cola and Simply Good Foods have both reported results this week. Coca-Cola grew its revenue 7.2% on a year earlier and Simply Good Foods' fell 9.7%, but at the tills of the US grocery chains in our panel, shoppers spent less on both. Here is what they bought over the same weeks, compared with the same weekdays a year earlier.

These figures aren't the companies' revenue, and they aren't forecasts. Both companies sell far more than these shelves carry, and our figures cover only what went through these tills. They are a consistent, independent read on one part of each business.

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How we measure

Every figure below is same store and like for like. We compare only stores that traded in both years, so stores opening or closing don't count as growth. We credit last year's sales to this year's owner of each brand, so acquisitions don't count either. And we compare each company with the market: every sale in those same stores, branded or not. Each window is the company's own fiscal quarter, taken from its SEC filings.

Across these chains, same-store sales were down about 5% on a year earlier in both windows, and units about 8%.

Fiscal quarter	Reported revenue	Year on year	Our till sales	Against the market	Units against the market
Coca-Cola, Q3 (4 Jul to 2 Oct)	$13.35bn	+7.2%	(9.5%)	(4.9%)	(4.0%)
Simply Good Foods, Q4 (31 May to 29 Aug)	$333m	(9.7%)	(29.0%)	(25.5%)	(22.0%)

Coca-Cola: 4.9% behind the market

Coca-Cola reported revenue of $13.35bn, slightly ahead of the $13.31bn expected, and EPS of 0.91, in line. Over its third quarter, its same-store sales at these tills were down 9.5%, which puts it 4.9% behind the market. Units were down 11.5%, more than sales, so shoppers paid about 2% more per item.

The split by brand is sharp. The full-sugar core fell: Coca-Cola itself was down 15%, Sprite 18% and Fanta 21%. The lighter and smaller lines held up or grew. Coca-Cola Zero Sugar was flat and Sprite Zero Sugar up 2%. The mini cans were up 4% for Coca-Cola and 10% for Sprite, and Fresca was up 15%. Outside soft drinks, fairlife milk was up 8% and Simply's lemonades and other juices grew too.

Coca-Cola brand, same store	Sales, year on year
Coca-Cola	(15.3%)
Diet Coke	(10.0%)
Sprite	(17.6%)
Coca-Cola Zero Sugar	(0.5%)
fairlife	7.9%
Simply Orange	(3.2%)
Fanta	(20.8%)
Coca-Cola minis	3.8%

Reported revenue covers Coca-Cola's whole business, worldwide and in every channel. In US grocery, shoppers are buying fewer full-sugar sodas and paying a little more for each one.

Simply Good Foods: 25.5% behind the market

Simply Good Foods reported revenue of $333m against $334m expected, and EPS of 0.44 against 0.42. Over its fiscal fourth quarter, its same-store sales at these tills were down 29.0%, which puts it 25.5% behind the market, with units 22.0% behind.

All three of its brands fell:

Simply Good Foods brand, same store	Sales, year on year
Atkins	(36.6%)
Quest	(20.0%)
OWYN	(33.9%)
Total	(29.0%)

Two things are behind this. The first is fewer products on the shelf. In the same stores, the number of store-and-product listings fell by about 27% for Atkins, 22% for OWYN and 6% for Quest, as some chains cut the range they carry. Most stores still sell each brand, but carry fewer of its bars, shakes and snacks. The second is weaker demand for what stayed: sales per remaining listing were down about 13 to 15% for each brand.

That is why the till figure is so much worse than reported revenue. Simply Good Foods also sells through club stores, mass merchants and online, which these tills don't see. Where grocers have trimmed its range, the effect shows up in full in our numbers.

The wider picture

Both companies trailed a market that was itself down. For Coca-Cola, it is a shift in the mix within its brands, toward zero sugar, smaller packs and milk. For Simply Good Foods, it is a loss of shelf space at grocery, on top of softer demand.

Any company's figure for its last reported quarter costs $0.01 from our API, with no account: api.decadata.io. For every company and brand, from T+2, get in touch.

Photo by daniel mironov on Unsplash.